Gary Field : Cardiff City – The season so far

‘ Cardiff City Our Season So Far ‘

27th December 2014

After the completion of the game yesterday we currently stand 11th in the Championship table with 31pts out of the 69 available, this is the 3rd lowest points total we have achieved at this stage of the season since our return to this level in the 2003/04 season. Only in season 2004/05 (22pts) and 2007/08 (29pts) have we won fewer points at this stage.

At the start of this season expectation levels were high amongst our fans that we would achieve an immediate return to the PL having what many considered the best squad in our history. Sadly those expectation levels have been crushed by a succession of one disappointing performance after another. At the halfway stage of the season we are going to have to achieve something NO other club in the last 10 years has done by winning automatic promotion having won just 31 points after 23 games. To put things into greater perspective even the Championship winning Reading team of season 2011/12 who came from nowhere had 36 points, 5 ahead of us, at this stage. Of greater concern is that only 1 club in the last 10 seasons, Preston, has gone on to reach the playoffs having won fewer than 31 points after 23 games, and that was in season 2004/05.

So after just 50% of the season any hope of automatic promotion has gone, unless we can do something NO other team has achieved in the last 10 seasons, and when it comes to the playoffs only 1 of the 40 teams to have reached the end of seasons playoffs has done so having won fewer points than us. So what are we left to play for? In my opinion our target should be the 50 point mark as that would at least give us another season in the Championship.

So after the completion of 50% of our games where has it all gone wrong and where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of half term report into season 2014 – 2015.

To fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;

Wins %: 35% – 44%
Draw %: 30% – 28%
Loss %: 35% – 28%

Average Goals Scored: 1.30 – 1.57
Goal For Conversion Rate: 9.77 – 7.92
Failed To Score%: 30% – 11%

Average Goals Conceded: 1.35 – 0.97
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 11.19 – 9.61
Clean Sheets %: 17.39% – 31%

Possession 45.35% – 51.54%

Points Won: 31 – 36

The lowest overall possession, the number of games won, the increase in the number of games lost, the number of clean sheets, the number of goals conceded, the poor conversion rate are ALL clear indicators of why we have had such a disappointing season to date.

There can be little doubt that this season, despite a wide held believe in the attacking talent within the squad, we have needed more attempts on goal to score (9.77) than the average of the previous 10 seasons of scoring a goal every 7.92 attempts on goal. We have also failed to score in 30% of games, against an average of 11% since we returned to the Championship. We are also scoring on average 1.3 goals per game against an average of 1.57 per game since our return to the Championship.

Currently we have the 11th ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a low % of games.

Sadly our defensive performance so far this season has been the biggest disappointment. Currently we have the 13th ranked defensive record in the championship with 31 goals conceded, the highest total at this stage since our return to the Championship.

This season a goal is conceded every 11.19 attempts at goal compared with an average of 9.61 since our return to the Championship. However this season our opponents have averaged 15 attempts at goal each game against an average of 10 since our return to the Championship.

With 31pts from 23 games we have made, for us, a below average start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 36 points at this stage. As a result we have little chance of winning automatic promotion and only a slim chance of reaching the playoffs.

In recent weeks RS himself has talked about the importance of being in the top 6 at Christmas because few clubs manage to break into the top 6 in the 2nd half of the season. We are exactly where we deserve to be and I see little chance of us making the breakthrough into the top, but I hope I’m proved to be wrong.

But right now I would settle for reaching 50 points and doing so as quickly as possible.