Gary Field : How Cardiff City are doing so far.

By Gary Field

‘ Our Season So Far ‘

http://www.cardiffcityforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=149478

After the completion of the game on Saturday we currently stand 12th in the Championship table with 16pts out of the 36 available, this is the 3rd lowest points total we have achieved at this stage of the season since our return to this level in the 2003/04 season. Only in season 2004/05 (9pts) and 2007/08 (13pts) have we won fewer points at this stage and of greater concern is that only 1 club in the last 10 seasons has gone on to win automatic promotion having won fewer than 16 points after 12 games, that club was Sunderland who had 13 points at this stage during season 2006/07. There is the biggest challenge facing Russell Slade as he attempts to get our club back into the promotion race.

So after the completion of 26% of our games what kind of season do you think we will have? What do you think of our start? And where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of first term report into season 2014 – 2015.

In my opinion to fully consider the performance of the team you have to bear in mind the extent of the changes to the squad that have taken place since the end of last season. During the summer OGS has bought 11 new players into the club spending in the process the biggest amount of money, in a single transfer window, in the history of our club at this level. Although this was only OGS 2nd transfer window as manager of our club there can be little doubt that this was his team and no one can doubt that the results he achieved together with the lack of fitness and general organisation in his team he was lucky to survive as long as he did.

With so many players leaving at the end of the last season, and with the 11 new singings completed by the end of the summer transfer window we entered September with 31 players, with a further 7 players out on loan, we have the biggest squad in the history of our club at this level so hopefully RS will be able to galvanise the squad going forward to get us into the playoff positions, which surely has to be a realistic target.

Even with the luxury of PL parachute payments the size of our squad is less of a worry, in financial terms, but with RS already on record as saying he wants to trim the size of the squad the January transfer it will be interesting to see who gets moved on.

To fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our start to the season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;

Wins %: 33% – 44%
Draw %: 33% – 28%
Loss %: 33% – 28%

Average Goals Scored: 1.25 – 1.57
Goal For Conversion Rate: 9.07 – 7.94
Failed To Score%: 25% – 21%

Average Goals Conceded: 1.25 – 1.17
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 12.60 – 9.45
Clean Sheets %: 8% – 31%

Possession 46% – 51%

Points Won: 16 – 19

The number of games won, together with the lowest overall possession % and number of clean sheets and are the biggest indication of why we have had nothing better than an average start to the season.

There can be little doubt that this season, despite a wide held believe in the attacking talent within the squad, we have needed more attempts on goal to score (9) than the average of the previous 10 seasons of scoring a goal every 8 attempts on goal. We have also failed to score in 25% of games, against an average of 21% since we returned to the Championship. We are also scoring on average 1.25 goals per game against an average of 1.57 per game since our return to the Championship.

Currently we have the 11th ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a low % of games.

Sadly our defensive performance so far this season has been the biggest disappointment. Currently we have the 14th ranked defensive record in the championship with 15 goals conceded, the 3rd highest total at this stage since our return to the Championship.

This season a goal is conceded every 12.6 attempts at goal compared with an average of 9.45 since our return to the Championship. However this season our opponents have averaged 16 attempts at goal each game against an average of 10 since our return to the Championship. So in a season where we have allowed clubs greater possession, more attempts per match at our goal our opponents have the highest goal conversion rate of any season since our return to the Championship. What does that all say about the Championship this season, or rather the clubs we have faced so far?

With 16pts from our first 12 games we have made an average start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 19 points at this stage. We already look a decent bet to at least make the playoffs at the end of the season. What about automatic promotion?

Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 12 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 21 points. There have been exceptions like Sunderland who actually won the league after only winning 13 points after 12 games. If we continue with our current defensive performance it will stop any hope of promotion, either automatic or through the playoffs. As I have said previously there lies the challenge.

If we can reach 36 points after 23 games we will be on target for the playoffs, but in respect of automatic promotion it will need to be 40+ points, a huge challenge from where we are.

We have had an average start to the season and I wish RS, his backroom team and of course the players, the best of luck as they try to deliver the dream of promotion this season. Right now the playoffs look our best chance, but I’d take another trip to Wembley right now.